Where ETH stands today
As of this evening, ETH is trading around $2,820 after a choppy start to December. Day-to-day swings are noise unless you connect them to the pipes that move capital (ETFs), the tech that drives real usage (upgrades and fees), and broader risk appetite. Here’s a clear map of those forces—and what they might mean for the Ethereum price into 2026.
The new “pipes” for demand: spot Ether ETFs
The U.S. approved spot Ether ETFs in July 2024. On day one, ETF trading volume hit roughly $1.07B, while net inflows were about $106M across the new funds (with rotation out of the converted Grayscale product). That debut wasn’t the blockbuster that Bitcoin saw earlier in 2024, but it proved there’s a regulated channel for traditional investors to buy ETH. Over time, it’s the sustained net inflows, not launch-day fireworks, that matter for price.
Why this matters: ETFs are a structural buyer or seller depending on flows. Positive flows can support the ETH price the same way they’ve supported BTC; persistent outflows can be a headwind. Keep an eye on monthly flow summaries from major data providers and the largest issuers.
The tech tailwind, part 1: Dencun’s fee cuts
In March 2024, Ethereum shipped Dencun (Cancun + Deneb), introducing “blobs” via EIP-4844. Blobs let Layer-2s (L2s) post data far more cheaply than old calldata. The intent, per the official docs, was simple: make rollups dramatically cheaper and more scalable.
That intent translated quickly into reality. Independent reporting showed L2 transaction costs collapsing from dollars to cents in many cases—Base near $0.03, Optimism around $0.04, with similar drops on Arbitrum and others. A week of live data confirmed broad fee reductions across rollups. Cheaper blockspace tends to invite more usage.
There was a tradeoff: lower fees also meant less ETH burned, and for a stretch after Dencun, ETH flipped back to slightly inflationary versus the deflation seen in high-fee periods. Price-wise, that’s not automatically bearish; it just means valuation leans more on activity growth (more transactions, more L2 throughput, more settlement) than on the burn alone.
The tech tailwind, part 2: Fusaka (PeerDAS)
This week, Ethereum delivers Fusaka—the network’s second upgrade of 2025. The headline is PeerDAS (EIP-7594): instead of every node downloading entire L2 data “blobs,” nodes sample small pieces across peers to verify the data exists. That slashes bandwidth per node and opens the door to raising blob capacity in steps. In plain English: more room for L2s to breathe without pushing home stakers into datacenter gear.
On top of PeerDAS, developers have a tool to tune capacity with Blob Parameter-Only forks—tiny, purpose-built changes to blob targets and pricing. That means Ethereum can scale iteratively, reacting to real demand rather than waiting for a giant fork each time. It’s a pragmatic path toward the longer-term danksharding vision on the official roadmap.
Why this matters for price: When L2 data gets cheaper and more abundant, apps that are sensitive to fees—gaming, social, payments, high-frequency DeFi—can onboard more users. Over time, that activity settles on L1, supporting ETH’s fundamentals even if the burn is lower than in the pre-Dencun fee regime.
Macro and market structure still matter
Even the best tech can’t fully mute macro. Rising real yields or broad risk-off episodes can pressure crypto prices across the board. Conversely, rising risk appetite plus steady ETF inflows can put a tailwind under ETH. That’s why the mix of ETF pipes and protocol upgrades is so important: one channels capital; the other gives that capital more to use.
Key signals to watch
- ETF net flows & share turnover
Day-one headlines are old news; watch multi-month flows and how trading spreads/volume evolve. Sustained inflows are the clearest structural demand signal we have. - L2 fee dashboards and usage
After Dencun, fees fell sharply; after Fusaka, check whether blob capacity (via PeerDAS and parameter nudges) keeps fees low as usage grows. Cheaper blockspace should correlate with more transactions. - Roadmap continuity
Ethereum’s public roadmap (danksharding, account abstraction, single-slot finality) tells you what’s next. Progress here underpins the long-run ETH price story far more than any single narrative. - Supply dynamics
In high-fee regimes, ETH’s burn can tilt net issuance negative; in low-fee regimes, supply can creep up. Track whether activity (and fees) return to levels that meaningfully burn ETH, or whether the growth story now rests mainly on usage and settlement rather than scarcity.
Practical scenarios
- Bull lane: ETFs draw consistent inflows; L2 activity accelerates on cheaper data; macro is benign. In this lane, institutional targets like the ~$8k call look achievable by late-2026.
- Base lane: Flows are mixed; activity grows, but fits and starts; macro wobbles at times. ETH stair-steps higher with wide ranges into 2026.
- Bear lane: Risk-off macro and weak flows overwhelm upgrade tailwinds. ETH ranges lower while builders keep building; the investment case leans on longer-term execution.
Bottom line
- ETFs gave ETH a regulated demand pipe in 2024; the lasting impact depends on net inflows over quarters, not days.
- Dencun cut L2 costs dramatically; Fusaka (with PeerDAS) aims to scale data availability without sacrificing decentralization, so L2s can keep fees low as usage grows. That’s the right kind of flywheel for fundamentals.
- For ETH price into 2026, watch the signals: ETF flows, L2 fees/throughput, and steady roadmap delivery. Tie any target—bullish or cautious—to those real-world datapoints, and you’ll have a sturdier view than any quick take on social media.