Bitcoin is back in “chart-watch” season. After opening 2026 around $87,500, BTC has climbed roughly 9.5% and is now consolidating near $95,000, a zone traders describe as a make-or-break area for a push back into six figures. And while the market has cooled from recent highs, several analysts are pointing to a familiar technical setup — an ascending triangle — that implies an 18% measured move toward ~$113,200 if bulls can clear the next wall of resistance.
The catch: Bitcoin doesn’t need to “believe” in $113K today. It needs to prove it can reclaim ~$98,000 first.
Why $98K matters more than any moon target
Cointelegraph’s market analysis frames BTC’s current range as an “inflection point,” largely because $98,000 lines up with the short-term holder (STH) cost basis — the average entry level for newer buyers.
In practical terms, this level often acts like a confidence switch:
- Above it: recent buyers are back in profit, which can encourage follow-through buying.
- Below it: rallies can stall as underwater buyers use bounces to exit.
Glassnode echoed that idea in its early-January market review, noting that reclaiming key cost-basis zones is critical for confirming sustained upside — even as the broader structure looks “cleaner” after a late-2025 reset.
That helps explain why the Cointelegraph piece emphasizes a simple trigger: a daily close above ~$98K is seen by many traders as the signal that this recovery is more than just a bounce.
The “classic chart” behind the $113K call
So where does the $113,000–$113,200 target come from?
Cointelegraph points to an ascending triangle forming on the daily chart: higher lows pressing into a relatively flat resistance area. In technical analysis, an ascending triangle is commonly treated as a bullish continuation pattern—especially if price breaks the upper trendline with stronger participation.
The article identifies a resistance band between roughly $96,000 (the 100-day EMA) and $99,500 (the 200-day EMA). Clear that zone, and the triangle’s “measured move” projection points to ~$113,200.
To be clear: measured moves aren’t guarantees — they’re a way traders translate a pattern’s size into a potential target. But they’re popular because they’re easy to track, and that alone can turn them into self-fulfilling magnets in momentum markets.
What traders are saying right now
A big part of the Cointelegraph angle is sentiment: traders aren’t just watching lines — they’re watching whether Bitcoin can keep defending key supports.
One cited analyst said BTC is bouncing off a long-term trendline support that has held since March 2023, arguing that previous bounces from that trendline preceded strong upside runs. Another emphasized that holding above the 21-day moving average around $91,200 keeps the “trend up” narrative intact.
Momentum indicators are also being used as backup. Cointelegraph notes the RSI rose to 64, suggesting strength but not “overbought” conditions in the near term.
The macro tailwind: inflation calm is feeding risk appetite
Technical patterns don’t trade in a vacuum. Bitcoin’s early-2026 rebound is happening alongside a friendlier macro mood, where inflation data has been stable enough to keep rate-cut expectations alive.
The U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics reported CPI up 0.3% in December and 2.7% year-over-year, which many investors read as “steady, not re-accelerating.” Investopedia tied Bitcoin’s move back toward the high-$90Ks to that inflation backdrop and to improving sentiment around crypto legislation — a combo that often lifts risk assets broadly.
That doesn’t mean macro is “bullish forever.” It means BTC is currently trading in an environment where the market is at least willing to flirt with upside again.
The reality check
If you’ve watched Bitcoin long enough, you know what comes next: the part where bulls meet “people who’ve been waiting to sell.”
Glassnode’s Week On-Chain report warns that while profit-taking pressure eased into early January, a dense cluster of cost bases sits between roughly $92K and $117K, creating potential friction as holders approach breakeven and decide to exit.
In other words: even if Bitcoin breaks higher, it may not be a straight line. The market still has to absorb supply from prior buyers who endured the drawdown and may be eager to sell into strength.
Bottom line
Bitcoin traders are circling a clean technical narrative: an ascending triangle with a ~$113K target. But the near-term story is simpler: can BTC reclaim ~$98K, the short-term holder cost basis, and hold it long enough to rebuild momentum?
Until then, $113K is the headline — and $98K is the test.