Bitcoin’s August wobble has revived an uncomfortable question: could BTC revisit sub-$90,000 in the weeks ahead? A growing stack of research notes and market updates say it’s possible—especially if macro jitters persist and leveraged longs keep unwinding. Standard Chartered’s digital-assets team, for one, argues that a decisive loss of the $90K shelf can extend declines toward the low-$80Ks before buyers step back in.
What’s new
BTC is cooling after printing fresh records in mid-August. On Aug. 18, CoinDesk noted profit-taking pushed prices back below $115,000 following an earlier peak near $124,000; the pullback remains smaller than prior 2025 drawdowns but has traders eyeing critical support.
Importantly, markets have already seen the sub-$90K tape this cycle. On Feb. 25, Reuters reported bitcoin slipped below $90,000 amid cross-asset nerves, tariffs chatter and security headlines—evidence the level can give way when macro and sentiment line up.
What analysts are saying
- Standard Chartered (Geoffrey Kendrick): A “clean break” under $90K risks a ~10% extension into the low-$80Ks; the bank simultaneously keeps a constructive long-term view, advising adds after the retracement completes.
- CoinDesk markets desk: In recent notes, technicians have flagged $92.5K–$89K as a band to watch; a failure there would strengthen the bear-case into prior demand zones.
- Seasonality/positioning: Late-July analysis warned momentum was fading into crypto’s historically soft period, increasing the odds of deeper tests of support as leverage resets.
Even pop-finance voices have stoked debate: Robert Kiyosaki floated an “August curse” scenario with BTC below $90K, though his call is opinion rather than institutional research. Treat it as sentiment, not a forecast.
Why the $90K area matters
- Psychology & structure. $90,000 is a big round number, but it also coincides with a cluster of prior pivots that acted as support/resistance throughout Q1–Q2 2025. Several technicians frame $90K–$92.5K as the first line, with air pockets toward the $86K–$88K zone if it breaks.
- It’s been tested. Reuters’ February recap confirms the market’s ability to trade through $90K under stress—a helpful reminder that round numbers don’t guarantee bounces.
What could push BTC under $90K
Bearish catalysts
- Macro shocks: Upside surprises in U.S. inflation or hawkish policy rhetoric tend to hit risk assets first and crypto harder—especially when positioning is crowded. (CoinDesk has repeatedly tied pullbacks this year to macro catalysts around Fed events.)
- ETF outflows/liquidity pockets: Weak days for U.S. spot-BTC ETFs can amplify selling pressure, particularly when open interest and leverage are high (August’s $1B+ leverage flush was a timely example).
- Seasonality: Late-summer has a mixed record for BTC; 10x Research cautioned at July-end that momentum was fading into a weaker seasonal window.
Bullish offsets
- Buy-the-dip playbooks: Even as it warned about a break, Standard Chartered framed sub-$90K as a place to consider adding, providing a potential cushion if that level is tested.
- Trend context: CoinDesk’s Aug. 18 update stresses each 2025 drawdown from highs has been progressively smaller, a sign of maturing market structure and persistent demand on dips.
Key levels & scenarios to watch
- $100K–$103.5K: Recently flagged as a near-term battleground; sustained closes below increase risk of re-testing the 90s. (Context from recent mainstream forecasts.)
- $92.5K–$89K: First critical support band; a decisive break opens Kendrick’s low-$80Ks map.
- $76K (April low): Deep pullback marker from earlier this year; only relevant if a larger risk-off shock develops, but it’s the level many macro bears watch.
What to monitor day-to-day
- ETF flow screens: Persistent outflows tend to correlate with pressure on spot and futures.
- Leverage metrics: After August’s liquidation wave, re-leveraging could make any fresh downdraft travel faster.
- Macro calendar: CPI, jobs data, and central-bank speakers—crypto often trades the same tape as high-beta equities on these days. (Recent CoinDesk wraps tie pullbacks to Fed-week jitters.)
Bottom line
Analysts aren’t calling for a new bear market—but several credible desks say a sub-$90K probe is on the table if support gives way, with the low-$80Ks a reasonable extension in a worst-case near-term slide. Equally, the same research highlights robust longer-term demand on dips. If you’re tracking the tape, the playbook is simple: watch $92.5K–$89K, mind ETF flows and leverage, and remember we’ve already seen prints below $90K once this year.